Posted by
JayPeriod on Friday, January 04, 2008 10:34:54 AM
So, now the Iowa caucuses are behind us. Mike Huckabee had a clear advantage over the field, but what does it all really mean? Is the White House the next stop?
I think we first have to look at the process. Since a caucus is not an actual voting process, its results must be suspect. When I vote, I must go, show my ID, step into the booth, pull the lever and leave. The caucus process requires the voter to show up and stay for a few hours for their vote to be counted. As such, many, many voters didn't bother to show up. Just as some candidates didn't.
While the people of Iowa may have many characteristics of the average American, love of God and country, the process keeps the actual views of Iowans from being expressed. Huckabee was able to energize the evangelical vote and to paint himself as a staunch conservative. His efforts paid off.
So, does that mean that New Hampshire's primary next Tuesday will be a better judge of how the race will play out? I don't think so. New Hampshire is a northeastern state with northeastern principals. This is an area where taxes are high, government programs are big, and traditional morality is often mocked. While New Hampshire might be a true test of the Democratic party, it hardly represents the conservative values of Middle America.
It may well be February 5th before we get a true picture of how the Republican party will shake out. In that day, we should get a clear front runner, though several candidates may claim victory.